Methodology

Matchup Notes publishes matchup notes and a public pick record. The rules on this page are the whole standard.

Credits

Data: nflverse (nflfastR / nflreadr), licensed CC-BY 4.0. NFL data belongs to its respective owners.

Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC-BY-SA 4.0. Any published table derived from FTN data is also CC-BY-SA. Label those tables so readers can see it.

Next Gen Stats data via nflverse; NGS is a product of the NFL.

Odds data: The Odds API. Lines shown are the lower-middle line of N US books.

Disclaimer

For entertainment and analysis only. Not betting advice. No sportsbook affiliation. 21+. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Closing line

The closing line is the lower-middle line of N US books in the last valid pre-kick snapshot. Sort the books' lines ascending and take element floor((n-1)/2). That is a real book line, never an average.

That snapshot is the last one stored before kickoff, typically 5 to 75 minutes before kickoff. It is not the true close at kickoff.

• Three or more books: that lower-middle line. Source: odds_api.
• Thin: 1-2 books. The same lower-middle line of those books is used. Source: odds_api_thin.
• Stale: the snapshot is more than 180 minutes before kickoff. Source: odds_api_stale.
• nflverse: no books, so the nflverse line is used. Source: nflverse.
• Ungraded: no line from either source. The site does not guess.

Lines are shown as the lower-middle line of N US books. Book names are not shown, and there are no book links.

Grading

Each pick is a flat 1 unit. Grading assumes standard −110 odds. A win is +0.909 units, a loss is −1.000 units, and a push is 0 units. Win percentage excludes pushes. CLV is shown for reference only and does not change the grade. Results are in units, never dollars.

Lock rule

A pick is rejected when picked_at is at or after kickoff, or when the server push time is at or after kickoff. Rejected picks are marked rejected – late and left out of the record. A client-set commit time does not lock a pick.

Film

Film is link-out only. This site does not rehost, download, or frame film. There is no fantasy content.